Saudi Journal of Kidney Diseases and Transplantation

: 2020  |  Volume : 31  |  Issue : 3  |  Page : 699--700

Risk-prediction model for COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients

Sora Yasri1, Viroj Wiwanitkit2,  
1 Private Academic Practice, Bangkok, Thailand
2 Department of Community Medicine, Dr. D. Y. Patil University, Pune, Maharashtra, India; Department of Tropical Medicine, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, China

Correspondence Address:
Sora Yasri
Private Academic Practice, Bangkok

How to cite this article:
Yasri S, Wiwanitkit V. Risk-prediction model for COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients.Saudi J Kidney Dis Transpl 2020;31:699-700

How to cite this URL:
Yasri S, Wiwanitkit V. Risk-prediction model for COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients. Saudi J Kidney Dis Transpl [serial online] 2020 [cited 2020 Sep 25 ];31:699-700
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Full Text

To the Editor,

Patient undergone renal dialysis is usually prone to infection. Several new infections become the big threaten to dialysis patient. The emerging coronavirus infection is the new infection that becomes an important consideration in nephrology. The new disease is named COVID-19. This infection first occurred in China[1] and then spread to Thailand and many countries.[2] The disease is still a present disease to be managed. In early 2020, the WHO mentioned for the need for global collaboration to fight this new disease.

In this report, the authors focus interest on risk prediction for COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients. In fact, there is a previous study to create the risk-prediction model for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) infection in dialysis patients. According to that study, Ahmed et al.[3] reported this following model, “The predicted probability of MERS = [1+exp (2.362 – 3.186 × Chest pain – 1.805 × leukopenia – 2.414 × elevated AST)]-1.” Here, the authors use the previous model in MERS as primary template for clinical modeling development. The data of clinical spectrum in MERS and COVID-19 in referencing publiccations are used as variable parameters for adjustment of the model. Briefly, in MERS[4] versus COVID-19,[5] the rates of chest pain, leukopenia, and elevated AST are, 15% versus 2%, 14% versus 9% and 11% versus 28%, respectively.

Based on the mentioned data, modeling adjustment is done and the final derived model for predicting COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients is “The predicted probability of MERS = [1 + exp (2.362 – 23.895 × Chest pain – 2.808 × leukopenia – 0.948 × elevated AST)]-1”. This model is useful for monitoring of risk for the new disease among the dialysis patients.

Conflict of interest: None declared.


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