Saudi Journal of Kidney Diseases and Transplantation

LETTER TO THE EDITOR
Year
: 2020  |  Volume : 31  |  Issue : 3  |  Page : 699--700

Risk-prediction model for COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients


Sora Yasri1, Viroj Wiwanitkit2,  
1 Private Academic Practice, Bangkok, Thailand
2 Department of Community Medicine, Dr. D. Y. Patil University, Pune, Maharashtra, India; Department of Tropical Medicine, Hainan Medical University, Haikou, China

Correspondence Address:
Sora Yasri
Private Academic Practice, Bangkok
Thailand




How to cite this article:
Yasri S, Wiwanitkit V. Risk-prediction model for COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients.Saudi J Kidney Dis Transpl 2020;31:699-700


How to cite this URL:
Yasri S, Wiwanitkit V. Risk-prediction model for COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients. Saudi J Kidney Dis Transpl [serial online] 2020 [cited 2020 Sep 25 ];31:699-700
Available from: http://www.sjkdt.org/text.asp?2020/31/3/699/289460


Full Text



To the Editor,

Patient undergone renal dialysis is usually prone to infection. Several new infections become the big threaten to dialysis patient. The emerging coronavirus infection is the new infection that becomes an important consideration in nephrology. The new disease is named COVID-19. This infection first occurred in China[1] and then spread to Thailand and many countries.[2] The disease is still a present disease to be managed. In early 2020, the WHO mentioned for the need for global collaboration to fight this new disease.

In this report, the authors focus interest on risk prediction for COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients. In fact, there is a previous study to create the risk-prediction model for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) infection in dialysis patients. According to that study, Ahmed et al.[3] reported this following model, “The predicted probability of MERS = [1+exp (2.362 – 3.186 × Chest pain – 1.805 × leukopenia – 2.414 × elevated AST)]-1.” Here, the authors use the previous model in MERS as primary template for clinical modeling development. The data of clinical spectrum in MERS and COVID-19 in referencing publiccations are used as variable parameters for adjustment of the model. Briefly, in MERS[4] versus COVID-19,[5] the rates of chest pain, leukopenia, and elevated AST are, 15% versus 2%, 14% versus 9% and 11% versus 28%, respectively.

Based on the mentioned data, modeling adjustment is done and the final derived model for predicting COVID-19 infection in dialysis patients is “The predicted probability of MERS = [1 + exp (2.362 – 23.895 × Chest pain – 2.808 × leukopenia – 0.948 × elevated AST)]-1”. This model is useful for monitoring of risk for the new disease among the dialysis patients.

Conflict of interest: None declared.

References

1Hsia W. Emerging new coronavirus infection in Wuhan, China: Situation in early 2020. Case Study Case Rep 2020;10:8-9.
2Yasri S, Wiwanitkit V. Editorial: Wuhan coronavirus outbreak and imported case. Adv Trop Med Pub Health Int 2020;10:1 -2.
3Ahmed AE, Alshukairi AN, Al-Jahdali H, et al. Development of a risk-prediction model for Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus infection in dialysis patients. Hemodial Int 2018;22:474-9.
4Assiri A, Al-Tawfiq JA, Al-Rabeeah AA, et al. Epidemiological, demographic, and clinical characteristics of 47 cases of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus disease from Saudi Arabia: A descriptive study. Lancet Infect Dis 2013;13:752-61.
5Chen N, Zhou M, Dong X, et al. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: A descriptive study. Lancet 2020;395:507-13.